Ukraine falls behind Moldova and Albania in EU membership progress

The European Commission's 2026 enlargement report and the roadmaps it has prepared for four candidate countries show Ukraine slipping behind Moldova on the path to EU membership. Ukraine remains in the group of frontrunners, but it is now the weakest performer of the four and is advancing more slowly than its rivals.

Key facts

• Four frontrunners ranked by accession roadmap: Montenegro first, then Albania, Moldova and Ukraine
• Montenegro is expected to conclude accession talks this year, with an accession treaty drawn up afterwards
• Albania and Moldova are both expected to complete work on their accession treaties in 2028
• Ukraine's average readiness score rose by just 0.2 points in three years; Moldova's rose by almost a full point
• Montenegro's 2026 score reached about 4, described as good alignment with EU law

What do the roadmaps show?

The roadmaps are new documents that forecast progress towards EU membership based on the European Commission's expectations of each candidate's reform pace. On this measure Montenegro leads and is expected to conclude accession negotiations this year, followed by drafting of an accession treaty. Albania sits second, more than a year behind Montenegro, with its accession treaty drafting planned for 2028.

Moldova follows close behind Albania and is also expected to finish work on its accession treaty in 2028. Ukraine comes last of the four, lagging significantly behind Moldova.

How does readiness compare?

Three years ago Montenegro's average preparedness score was 3.1 points and Ukraine's was 2.3, with Albania in between and Moldova well behind at 1.9. In the latest assessment Montenegro reached about 4, a level the European Commission treats as sufficient for full membership, while Moldova gained almost a full point over the period and Ukraine improved by just 0.2.

Albania did not match Montenegro's growth and is now placed closer to Moldova in the roadmaps, having begun serious reform steps only in the past year. Over the past year, Montenegro, Moldova and Albania all improved their ratings, while Ukraine's change indicator lagged behind theirs.

Why is Ukraine falling behind?

The European Commission's reports stress that nothing irreversible has happened and that Ukraine is being kept in the frontrunner group for political reasons, even at the cost of delaying Moldova's progress. The report notes that in some areas improvement occurred despite the actions of the Ukrainian authorities rather than because of them.

The report states that reforms are a prerequisite for membership and that no concept of "political accession" will work. It also notes that reforms are hard to implement during wartime, including difficulties holding parliamentary votes during air-raid alerts.

What happens next?

The European Commission says Ukraine has begun to show some signs of picking up the pace this autumn. Whether that becomes a broader catch-up effort is now up to Ukraine and its parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, before the European Commission issues its 2027 report.