Australia's rival party migration plans target students, graduates and visas

Over the past month Australia's Labor government, the Coalition and One Nation have each announced migration policies that would reshape student, graduate, skilled and bridging visas. All three focus on net overseas migration (NOM) — the net balance of people arriving and leaving — as their headline figure, but Peter McDonald, honorary professor of demography at the University of Melbourne, argues none of the targets is backed by modelling of their effects on jobs, housing or infrastructure.

Key facts

• Labor has adopted the Treasury long-run forecast of 235,000 net overseas migrants a year as its policy position
• The Coalition proposes NOM of 100,000 in its first two years in government, then 130,000 and 160,000
• One Nation wants NOM to be net-negative for three years before rising to 130,000, without stating how far below zero
• Labor and the Coalition both back a permanent intake of 185,000 a year; One Nation does not mention permanent migration
• One Nation and the Coalition would scrap the graduate visa for all but a small number of elite students
• The Coalition would cut bridging visa numbers from around 400,000 to 40,000

What numbers are the parties proposing?

Labor in government long avoided setting a NOM target, but has now adopted Treasury's forecast of 235,000 a year. That figure comes from research by Treasury's Centre for Population in 2020, during the Morrison Coalition government, and Treasury has kept it for six years despite major changes in temporary migration management since then.

The Coalition's plan would see NOM fall to 100,000 in its first two years in government, rise to 130,000 in year three and 160,000 in year four, then keep the migration rate as a share of population below the average under the Howard government. McDonald notes this comparison is unreliable because the Australian Bureau of Statistics used three different NOM definitions during the Howard years, and far more temporary migrants are counted today than under the earlier definitions.

What could change for international students?

All three parties agree undergraduate students should not be allowed to bring family members with them, and Labor has already implemented that change. One Nation would heavily restrict international student numbers, while One Nation and the Coalition both propose eliminating the graduate visa except for a small number of elite students.

What about skilled, bridging and permanent visas?

Reflecting labour demand, all three parties want to increase numbers on the temporary skilled visa, which would become the main route for recruiting skilled permanent migrants if the graduate visa goes. One Nation, however, proposes barring temporary skilled visa holders from bringing their families on what is described as a four-year temporary visa.

On bridging visas, the Coalition wants to fall from around the present 400,000 to 40,000, largely by barring temporary migrants other than working holiday makers from applying for another temporary visa while in Australia; One Nation's target is 300,000. McDonald points out that 133,000 current Bridging Visa A holders are applicants for permanent visas, and estimates the Coalition's cuts to graduate and bridging visas would remove about 475,000 workers from the labour force, 216,000 of them skilled.

On the permanent program, Labor and the Coalition agree on 185,000 a year but split on humanitarian numbers — Labor 20,000, the Coalition 10,000. None of the three proposes ending the capping of permanent visas issued to partners of Australian citizens. All three also aim to deal with 80,000 so-called "unlawful non-citizens", with One Nation alone ruling out an amnesty.

What this means for travellers

These are policy proposals, not current rules: the opposition plans would only come into play after the 2028 election. Students and temporary workers considering Australia should note the one change already in force — undergraduate students cannot bring family members — and check the latest party positions before making long-term study or work plans.

McDonald argues the data needed to judge these plans will come from the 2026 census, for which no release date has been published, and that drastic changes should wait until that research is available. He says whichever government is elected in 2028 should conduct that work.