Samoa ballot winners face longer waits as Australia holds Pacific visa to 3,000 a year

Australia issued 4,006 Pacific Engagement Visas (PEV) in the scheme's first two years, out of 6,000 available, and then slowed processing in June 2026 to remain within a limit of 3,000 visas in a single fiscal year, researchers Stephen Howes and Finn Clarke wrote on the Devpolicy Blog. Their analysis, based on Department of Home Affairs data to June 2026, warns that people selected in the ballot may now wait months before a visa can be granted.

Key facts

• 4,006 PEV visas granted in the first two years, out of 6,000 available
• Processing slowed in June 2026 to stay within a 3,000 visa per fiscal year limit
• Between January and May 2026, more than 400 visas a month were issued
• 2024–25 cohort success rate: 74 per cent after two years; 2025–26 cohort: 59 per cent after five months
• Ballot winners lodged 3,000 visa applications in 2024–25 and 4,422 in 2025–26

What is happening with PEV processing?

Howes, Director of the Development Policy Centre and Professor of Economics at the Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University, and Clarke, a research officer at the centre, wrote that the scheme started slowly but accelerated sharply. From January to May 2026, more than 400 visas a month were granted, more than double the earlier monthly rate.

That momentum was then reined in during June 2026 so that grants would not exceed 3,000 in a single fiscal year, the authors wrote.

Who is affected?

To obtain a PEV, applicants and their families must register for a ballot, be selected in that ballot to apply for a visa, and then meet the visa requirements, which include an Australian job offer. The authors wrote that ballot winners are likely to lodge a visa application even without a job offer, in the hope that one will follow. A lodgement signals ballot success but is no guarantee of a grant.

The gap between the two cohorts is largely explained by application numbers, according to the article. Winners of the 2024–25 ballot lodged only 3,000 visa applications, while 2025–26 winners lodged 4,422 — suggesting many more people were selected and invited to apply than that year's 3,000 quota.

Why are some ballot winners unlikely to get a visa?

Howes and Clarke wrote that two decisions combined — capping grants at 3,000 a fiscal year while selecting more than 3,000 people from the ballot — mean some ballot winners will never receive a visa.

They gave the example of someone told in August 2026 of ballot success who finds a job at the end of December. If 3,000 visas have already been granted since July to the earlier cohort, that person may have to wait until the following July, and the employer may not hold the position open.

What do the researchers suggest?

The authors recommended this "over-selection" approach in August last year. As of June, only 20 per cent of the growth in the aggregate success rate between cohorts came from more grants relative to applications, with the remainder coming from more applications.

If another 3,000 visas are granted in 2026–27, the cumulative success rate will rise from 67 per cent in June 2026 to 78 per cent a year later, they wrote. An alternative, they argued, would be for Australia to recognise that it issued only 1,006 PEV visas in 2024–25 and to raise the annual limit above 3,000 for the next few years, or remove it.

What this means for travellers

People hoping to use the Pacific Engagement Visa should be aware that ballot selection does not guarantee a visa, and that a job offer is among the requirements. Because grants are capped at 3,000 a fiscal year, applicants selected late in a year may face a wait before their application can be finalised.

No change to the 3,000 annual limit has been announced. The researchers' proposal to raise or remove the cap is a recommendation only.